Popular car: price of used and used cars should fall – 05/26/2023 – Market

The price of semi-new and used cars should also fall after the government announces the details of the plan that seeks to expand access to new popular cars by up to 10.96%. This was the assessment made by Fenauto (National Federation of Associations of Vehicle Dealers) and by Bright Consult, a specialist in this market, one day after the announcement of the measures.

Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) announced this Thursday (25) that the government should reduce taxes for vehicles of up to R$ 120,000, with a reduction in the collection of IPI and PIS/Cofins. Discounts should range from 1.5% to 10.96%, depending on price, energy efficiency and national production involved in manufacturing.

The government planned to announce the plan this Thursday, but had to postpone it after technicians from the Ministry of Finance assessed that the project made by the MDIC (Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services) was contrary to the LRF (Fiscal Responsibility Law).

With this, the details of the new package will be released within 15 days. Until then, the automobile market should suffer a drop in sales, according to Cassio Pagliarini, partner at Bright Consult. “The new market has stopped. No one will buy until the decree comes out”, says the specialist. The consultancy estimates that sales in the sector should fall from 181 thousand to 170 thousand this month. “The buyer will hold the money until the package is announced,” he says.

The President of Fenauto, Enilson Sales, avoids predicting numbers, but also believes in a stoppage in sales until there is an announcement. “Now there will be a retraction, because what will come will be expected. In a second moment (when the measures are announced), the industry will not dawn and have all the cars available. The industry will start to manufacture what will be most favored, it will take a while for us to see the impact”, he evaluates.

Regarding the used and used car market, Sales estimates that there will be a drop in prices in the short term. “You need to see what the parameters will be. From what has been announced so far, we predict that the semi-new or used with low displacement ethanol and that costs up to R$ 120 thousand will have a price reduction, but it is not possible to know the percentage, because it depends on what will be announced”, he says.

Anyway, the president of Fenauto sees the measure as positive. “Any announcement that encourages the market is welcome, as there is no used car factory. If it encourages the sale of brand new cars, it encourages used car sales in the future. We just think that the car market used could be contemplated with some measure.”

The president of Fenabrave (National Federation of Motor Vehicle Distribution), Andreta Júnior, chooses not to make projections until the announcement of the measures. “It is not possible to make projections and estimates of volumes and percentages without first being aware of the decree to be published within 15 days and its effective applicability by automakers”, he explains, in a note released this Friday (26).

The entity claims that it considers the government’s plan to be positive, but that it needs to wait for a definition. “There are still points to be defined, which will allow us a better analysis. From what has been discussed and announced so far, Fenabrave believes that a probable reduction in car prices, to levels below R$ 60 thousand, if linked to a more plentiful and cheaper credit, can reach consumers who today are outside the consumption range of zero-kilometer cars.”

Best selling used cars of the year

Model	Units
Goal	53,517
Canopy	30,742
one	30,185
road	22,478
Onyx	22,194

_{Source: Fenabrave}

For consultant Cassio Pagliarini, the tendency is for the price of semi-new and used cars to fall, as well as the sales volume. “If the impact is direct on the price, which I don’t believe, the reduction (in the sale of semi-new and used cars) will be strong at first. But then the market will adapt. I would say that used vehicles close to R$ 120,000 they can reduce a little less than the discount that will be given for new ones. As for used ones in the range of R$ 80 to R$ 90 thousand, it will depend on each car, but there will be a reduction in the current price.”

Market is up in 2023

After a drop in 2022, the market was recovering this year with an accumulated 4.39 million used vehicles sold until April, according to Fenabrave data. In the same period last year, the total was 4.2 million, 4.15% less than in 2023.

Used car sales dropped 10.07% last year. 13.8 million vehicles were traded, around 1.5 million less than in 2021. In the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, the used car market had a boost, as there was a lack of parts for the manufacture of new and used vehicles became the alternative.