Imports of agrochemicals continue to slow down and fall by half in 2023 – 05/29/2023 – Vaivém

The pace of agribusiness exports remains consistent, while imports lose strength. As for exports, despite an average drop in international prices, the volume available this year is higher than in 2022.

On the import side, the scenario is very different from that of 2022, when the sector was still affected by the persistent effects of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This year, external purchases of inputs fall, and prices retreat. In the first five months, imports of fertilizers dropped to 13.4 million tons, 11% less than from January to May last year.

Expenditure on these purchases decreased to US$ 5.9 billion through May, 38% less than in the previous period. The fear of a possible shortage of product, due to the adverse international scenario, led the sector to accelerate imports in 2022, increasing carry-over stocks for this year.

Fertilizer supply lines have been reestablished, and input prices have dropped.

Pesticide imports have decelerated even more, retreating to 104 thousand tons in the year, 49.5% less than in the first five months of 2022. The prices paid by Brazilian importers this year are lower, but have not yet returned to levels of previous years. Spending on imports from January to May is estimated at US$ 1.26 billion, down 34% over 2022.

As for agricultural exports, this month’s data will indicate an appreciation of 14.5% in revenues. The volume grows 32%, according to still provisional data from Secex (Secretary of Foreign Trade).

These numbers include only unprocessed agricultural products. Foods that go through the processing industry, such as sugar and meat, also show good performance.

The highlight in exports continues to be soybeans, which, due to the delay in harvesting and the slower pace of sales by producers, should reach a volume close to 15 million tons this month, 44% more than in the same month of 2022.

Despite such a high volume, revenues from oilseeds grew by just 21%. The slower pace is due to the retraction of prices this year, which, in May, are 16% lower than the same month last year.

Among processed foods, Secex numbers point to a good evolution of sugar. The volume of exports this month is 21% higher than that of May 2022, and prices are 22% higher. Meat also has a higher sales volume this month, but prices are falling.

After the end of the suspension of sales to China, Brazilian beef exports are up 17% this month, compared to last year, according to preliminary data. Prices, however, retreated 21%. Foreign sales of chicken and pork meat also increased. Poultry prices, however, are falling in the international market, and pork prices are rising.

Total agribusiness exports accumulated US$ 51 billion up to April, with growth of 4.3% in the year. In the last 12 months, revenues rose to a record US$ 161 billion, with emphasis on the soy complex (grains, bran and oil), which totaled US$ 54 billion from May last year to last April.

Domestic prices of Brazilian commodities continue to fall. A bag of corn is quoted at R$ 55 in the region of Campinas (SP), down 16.5% this month alone, according to Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).

The beginning of the harvest, which will be a record, the lack of storage and the drop in prices worry cereal producers.

Soybeans, with the high dollar and the improvement in export premiums, gained a new sales rhythm. As a result, prices stopped falling and remain stable in relation to the end of April, according to Cepea’s follow-up.

Wheat ends the month with an 8% drop in domestic prices, which are at R$ 1,423 per ton in Paraná.

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