Government targets opposition dissidents to expand Senate base

The Planalto Palace closely monitors divisions among oppositionists, aiming to strengthen its base in the Senate. Last week, the most united bloc of the opposition in the House, formed by PL and Novo, suffered a casualty with the departure of Zequinha Marinho (PA), who joined Podemos. With the change, the independent party now has five senators, while the PL fell to 11. Although the government won an important victory in February, right at the beginning of the legislature, with the re-election of Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) as president of the Senate, by 49 of 81 votes, the quest to broaden the support base remains a priority.

Zequinha Marinho’s decision to leave the PL is a reflection of regional disputes and also suggests a relationship with his vote in favor of the provisional measure that reorganized ministries, diverging from the other members of his former party.

According to analyzes of experts consulted by the People’s Gazettethe relocation of forces in the Senate occurs amidst the polarization that persists since the last elections and is directly related to articulations of party leaders around alliances for the 2024 municipal elections, considered a preview of the 2026 general election. government invests in attracting parliamentarians from Centrão, while Justice generates discomfort to the opposition with threats of loss of mandates.

Although included in the electoral agenda, with the aim of delimiting spaces of influence within the parties, the movements may contain the action of the opposition minority in Congress. For Marcos Queiroz, consultant at Arko Advice, Zequinha Marinho’s migration to Podemos is a partial victory for the government, since the senator will continue to vote in line with the opposition. “However, the senator’s departure reduces the size of the PL bench, decreasing the party’s proportionality quotient in the division of positions in commissions”, he said. An example of this is the composition of the Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) on January 8th.

Upcoming votes may indicate advances by the Planalto

Elected to the Senate in 2018 by the PSC, a party incorporated into Podemos, Zequinha Marinho took the opposite course of the group that supported him in the election. Previously, he had the support of Senator Jader Barbalho (MDB) and Governor Helder Barbalho (MDB), allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). In 2022, Zequinha campaigned for the re-election of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to the Presidency, but he also failed in his own race for state government. He is also vice president of the agricultural, evangelical and sustainable mining parliamentary fronts in Congress, which face government agendas. Upon arriving at Podemos, he said he intends to lead the conservative movement in Pará for the next elections.

The migration of Zequinha Marinho from PL to Podemos is less radical compared to that of Senator Chico Rodrigues (RO), from União Brasil to PSB, from the governing base. Rodrigues, who was Bolsonaro’s vice-leader in the Senate, was the target of a Federal Police operation in 2022 that investigated the diversion of public resources intended to combat the pandemic. In addition to him, Senators Flávio Arns (PR) and Jorge Kajuru (GO), who left Podemos at the beginning of the year in the face of the new scenario, also switched to the party of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Minister Flávio Dino (Justice).

According to Leandro Gabiati, consultant at Dominium Consultoria, Zequinha reacted to the loss of power in the state directory of the PL, of which he was regional president. “The change, therefore, is not ideological in nature, but electoral tactics. The senator finds affinity with center-right members in Podemos and does not automatically gain votes for the government,” he said. For Gabiati, Zequinha’s favorable vote for the Esplanada MP was a gesture of independence and real trends may emerge in votes on tax reform and the fiscal framework, which will have more support from the opposition.

Luiz Filipe Freitas, an analyst at Consillium, also does not see Zequinha’s move to Podemos as a victory for the government, “but it certainly represents a defeat for Bolsonaro’s allies.” “Poss is an independent party and does not establish itself as an official support base for the government. However, in Senate votes such as Zanin’s nomination to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and the fiscal framework, the party can help as an option for the Planalto negotiations for support”, highlighted the political scientist.

Plateau insists on offensive to win over PP and Republicans

With the intense clash between the government and the Chamber, which has generated high tensions and severe defeats for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the polls, the effort of Planalto organizers to expand the parliamentary base has become even more crucial. . In addition to retaining allied parties such as União Brasil, the goal is to attract others from abroad, such as PP and Republicans.

The government had already been negotiating with parliamentarians, especially deputies from the Northeast, the region where Lula is most popular. In the Senate, the situation is seen as more difficult, since the six PP senators were elected with the support of Bolsonaro and the four Republicans are related to his government. Negotiations are being conducted by ministers Alexandre Padilha (Institutional Relations) and Rui Costa (Casa Civil), in addition to leaders in the Chamber, José Guimarães (PT-CE), and in the Senate, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA).

In Republicans, the only member who maintained dialogue with the government is Senator Mecias de Jesus (RR). The PT was instrumental in confirming in Congress deputy Jhonatan de Jesus (RR), from the Republicans and son of Mecias, in the vacancy of Minister of the Federal Audit Court (TCU). The PT also helped the president of the party, deputy Marcos Pereira (SP), to be chosen first vice-president of the Chamber.

Pereira, however, claims that the party is independent and does not intend to be part of the base until the end of Lula’s term. But he admits that the government can count on the vote of 10 of the party’s 42 deputies. In the vote on the Provisional Measure that restructured the Esplanada dos Ministérios, the Republicans recorded 35 favorable votes. Pereira negotiates the entry of the Minister of Tourism, Daniela Carneiro, into the Republican Party while she tries to leave União Brasil without losing her mandate in the Chamber.

Likewise, the PP depends on the approval of senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), president of the party, in order to join the government. Bolsonaro’s former minister has positioned himself since the beginning of the year as an opposition, with strong criticism of the PT administration.

Also party of the mayor, Arthur Lira (AL), the PP gave 34 votes to the government in the MP da Esplanada, even after harsh criticism made by Lira to the lack of government articulation before the vote. Lira seeks influence in second-tier positions, as she had during the previous government. Only PL and Novo do not participate in any negotiations and act freely against the Lula government, assuming a marked position of opposition. In the PL, however, leaders recognize that 35 of the party’s 99 deputies would be willing to negotiate with the government.

Lula enters the field to meet demands from senators

On Monday (5), Lula met with allied senators at the Planalto Palace to discuss political articulation. Among the opposition parties, only the leader of the PSDB, Izalci Lucas (DF), was present at the meeting at the Planalto Palace. Leaders Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), Randolfe Rodrigues (no party-AP), Otto Alencar (PSD-BA), Fabiano Contarato (PT-ES), Jorge Kajuru (PSB-GO), Renan Calheiros (MDB- AL) and Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI). Ministers Alexandre Padilha (Institutional Relations) and Rui Costa (Civil Staff) were also present. The meeting also dealt with the size of the allied base in the Senate and agendas such as lawyer Cristiano Zanin’s sabbatine for the STF.

While the government invests in articulation, Justice continues to pressure opposition parliamentarians. Last week, Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), senator and former minister of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), was convicted in the first instance by the Court of Justice of Rio Grande do Norte (TJ-RN) for an alleged appointment of a ghost employee at Natal City Council when he was councilor, from 2001 to 2007.

The senator will appeal and considered the decision wrong, mainly due to clarifications already presented about what happened almost 20 years ago. “The hiring of a doctor who provided services to the population with everything documented cannot be seen as a diversion of resources, much less something that lacks transparency”, he argued. He also claims that the scope of the decision is time-barred.