Fipe: rise in food prices exceeds average inflation – 10/02/2024 – Vaivém

The rise in food prices once again exceeded average inflation in September. Some basic consumer everyday products are undergoing intense readjustments.

Data released by Fipe (Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas), this Wednesday (2), confirm this evolution and indicate that the food sector had an average adjustment of 0.39% last month in São Paulo, above the 0.18 % of average inflation.

The increase in consumer demand is a reflection of what is happening in the countryside, mainly with milk, coffee, beef and oranges, shows Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics). The favorable side for the consumer is that fruit and vegetables have lost pressure and prices are falling or more accommodating.

One of the main pressures on the consumer’s wallet comes from coffee. The Vietnamese begin harvesting the 2024/25 crop this month, and the prospects are not good, due to the climate effect on crops.

In Brazil, the prolonged absence of rain is starting to affect crops, which could compromise part of the 2024/25 harvest. Last month, Robusta coffee had an unprecedented performance, registering, for the first time, a higher average price than Arabica. The bill arrived for the consumer.

Fipe recorded an increase of 4.13% in coffee prices in September, accumulating an increase of 23% this year.

Milk, when a drop in prices was expected in recent weeks, rose again. The lower supply of the product means that the current prices paid to producers accumulate an increase of 32% in the year.

The drink ended September with an increase of 1.28%, but has already accumulated 24% this year in supermarkets. A high dollar and lower imports also helped to accelerate prices.

Beef is rising again and is being traded at R$276 per arroba, a value not recorded since April 2023. The increase in beef prices provides support for other proteins.

Supermarkets readjusted beef, on average, by 3% last month. Contrafilé rose 6%, and picanha, 5% in the period, according to Fipe.

Pork and chicken meat followed beef, with increases of 4.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The good moment in exports is one of the reasons for this increase in domestic prices.

Rice maintains stable but high prices, due to the off-season and increases in the international market. The producers’ intention to plant in the 2024/25 harvest is good, but the excess rain and humidity is making it difficult for machines to work in the field. Beans, with good supply, continue to fall.

Fruit and vegetable products, with the greatest supply, are in decline. This does not happen, however, with oranges, which have been breaking record prices in the countryside.

Smaller harvests and the effects of diseases on crops have reduced supply, which increases the dispute between the product that goes to industries and what goes to consumers’ tables.

In the last 12 months, due to the evolution of the fruit in orchards, oranges have increased by 62% for consumers, according to Fipe.

The price of vegetables is favorable for the consumer. The average drop in September was 6%, driven by carrots and tomatoes, which are showing good productivity.

The same happens with potatoes and onions, the latter with a drop of 17% last month. Among vegetables, of the nine products surveyed weekly by Fipe, all had a drop in prices in supermarkets.

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