Disapproval of Lula increases due to concerns about the economy and corruption
Disapproval of the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) rose from 43% in July to 45% in September according to the new round of the Quaest evaluation survey released this Wednesday (2). Although the advance occurred within the margin of error of plus or minus 2 points, approval fell 3 points, from 54% to 51%.
According to the survey, among the possible causes for this are the increase in Brazilians’ concern about the economy – from 21% in July to 24% in September – and about corruption – from 12% to 13%.
Quaest interviewed 2,000 people over the age of 16 in the four regions of the country (Central-West and North are aggregated) between the 25th and 29th of September, with a confidence level of 95%.
The greatest disapproval of Lula continues in the Southeast region, where it went from 48% in July to 53% in September, while approval fell from 48% to 45%. The same was recorded in the Central-West/North, where disapproval went from 42% to 46% and approval from 53% to 49%.
In the south of the country, the evaluation is technically tied, at 53% disapproval and 42% disapproval. A more favorable opinion occurs only in the Northeast, where Lula is approved by 69% of voters, while 26% disapprove.
For the director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes, Lula’s third government is not managing to establish its own brand and is living off a kind of “recall”.
“The government is not being able to differentiate itself from the previous government and as a result it is losing its identity. If it weren’t for the Northeast and the poorest, who voted for Lula in 2022, the situation would be worse. In other words, what holds the government back is its recall, not the achievement of the new government”, he said in an interview with GloboNews.
Lula’s positive and negative assessment also varies according to the interviewees’ family income:
- Up to 2 minimum wages: 62% approve (was 69% in July) and 32% disapprove (was 26%);
- From 2 to 5 minimum wages: 51% approve (was 50%) and 46% disapprove (was 47%);
- Above 5 minimum wages: 57% disapprove (was 54%) and 40% approve (was 42%).
The numbers calculated by Quaest also point to an increase in disapproval among the two largest religious groups in the country: Catholics, who had a high approval rating, and evangelicals, who had already indicated disapproval since the beginning of this third Lulist term.
Disapproval among evangelicals rose from 52% in July to 55% in September, while among Catholics it soared from 37% to 42%. Approval is 41% and 54%, respectively.
Among the other points of concern for Brazilians – and which influence Lula’s assessment – there was a slight drop in violence (from 19% to 17%), social issues (from 18% to 16%), health (from 15% to 12%) and education (from 8% to 7%).
In the general assessment of the Lula 3 government, those interviewed were also more pessimistic, with an increase from 30% to 33% of regular, from 30% to 31% of negative, and a reduction from 36% to 32% of negative.
They were also more pessimistic in comparison with the government of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL):
- Same: 22% (was 8% in July)
- Best: 38% (was 51%);
- Worst: 33% (was 36%).
The biggest disapproval of Lula is also among Brazilians with incomplete higher education or more (59%) and white people (55%). Approval is higher among people with primary education (62%), mixed race (60%) and black people (59). Among those with complete or incomplete secondary education, the variation is narrow – 50% approval and 46% disapproval.
Regarding the issue of age, the new round of Quaest shows an increase in the distance between approval and disapproval among young people aged 16 to 34 (53% and 43% respectively), and approval among Brazilians over 35 years old ( 51% to 45%) and over 60 years old (49% and 48%).
