Datafolha: 38% approve of Lula; rejection ties with Bolsonaro – 01/04/2023 – Politics

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) reaches the first three months of his term with 38% approval and 29% disapproval, according to a Datafolha survey.

The result shows the disapproval of Lula equal to that registered by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) at the same time of his government, in 2019, thus repeating what was the worst performance since the 1985 redemocratization among presidents in the first term.

There, in the midst of several crises, the ex-president scored 30% bad/terrible, but was less approved than the PT, with 32% excellent/good. It was regular for 33%.

Another 30% consider Lula’s management to be regular now. They could not answer, among the 2,028 voters interviewed by the institute from Wednesday (29) to Thursday (30) in 126 cities, 3%. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.

Lula marks the beginning of his government with less popularity than that registered in his two previous visits to the Planalto Palace. In the 90 days of 2003, it was approved by 43%, with only 10% disapproving, while the mark was 48% and 14%, respectively, in the same period in 2007.

Compared to the 90-day mark of other first-term presidents, his approval is similar to that of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB, 39% in 1995), Fernando Collor (PRN, 36% in 1990) and Itamar Franco (PMDB, 34% in 1992). It is below the successor, Dilma Rousseff (PT), who had 47% excellent/good in 2011.

They are photographs. FHC was re-elected, but ended his second term poorly evaluated and did not choose a successor. Lula also won the dispute to stay in office and was acclaimed. Collor and Dilma ended up being impeached.

But the snapshot is not positive for Lula: the 29% bad/terrible is equal to the worst moment of all his first eight years in government, in December 2005, still under fire from the revelation of the monthly allowance.

The data express what the observation of political reality shows: Lula won a very close election against Bolsonaro in a divided country, with 1.8 percentage points above his rival in the second round, and has struggled in the economy and in articulation with Congress.

It is a country far from the national unity preached by the PT in the campaign and far from the practice in politics. On the contrary, maintenance of polarization by Lula, aiming now back at Brazil Bolsonaro, is a calculation that benefits both antagonists by closing the doors to alternatives.

So much so that much of the government’s energy at the beginning revolved around the coup act promoted on January 8 in Brasilia and the secondary effects of the crisis, such as the overthrow of the commander of the Army. Dealing with everyday problems has become greater now, with the debate on the fiscal framework and governance issues in the Legislative.

Indeed, the general polarization cuts associated with PT in the campaign are mirrored in the president’s assessment.

Lula is best evaluated or receives the least disapproval among northeasterners (53% excellent and good in the group, which adds up to 26% of the Datafolha sample), the poorest (21% bad / very bad among those who earn up to 2 minimum wages, 55% of the ears) and young people (17% of bad very bad among the 17% who are between 16 and 24 years old).

On the other hand, the traditionally more Bolsonarist electorate is more resistant to the PT. He only has 29% approval in the South (15% of the sample), 28% among evangelicals (27% of the ears) and 30% among the richest.

The largest share (51%) of voters considers that the president has done less than he could in these three months, while 18% think he has done more and 25%, what was expected. Other responses added up to 2% and they were unable to answer, 4%.

It’s a better result than Bolsonaro’s (61% thought he had done less), but worse than Lula-1 (45%) and Dilma-1 (39%).

Regarding expectations, the scenario is also unfavorable for Lula. 50% believe that he will make a great or good government, against 27% who expect something regular and 21%, bad or terrible. In his first term, Lula scored 76%, 15% and 4%, respectively, at this stage of the journey. Dilma, 78%, 15% and 5%. Even Bolsonaro did a little better: 59%, 16% and 23%.

28% think that the president will fulfill his campaign promises, against 24% who said so in December, when Datafolha questioned the electorate on the subject. They assess that most promises will not be fulfilled 50% (was 58%), while they think that nothing will be honored 21% (was 16%).

The same Lula and Dilma had similar positive expectations in 2003 and 2011, but the assessment that most or none of the promises would be fulfilled was identical, but different from now: 64% and 5%, respectively.