CPMI of January 8 starts with government dominance

Under government control, the Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) of January 8th, which will investigate the acts of vandalism that took place in Brasília, will start work this Thursday (25th) and should cause additional tension between the government and the opposition, especially the one linked to former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The session is scheduled to start at 9 am and will be chaired by Senator Otto Alencar (PSB-BA), the oldest parliamentarian who is part of the collegiate.

For experts heard by People’s Gazette, the commission with 32 parliamentary members, with an equal number of senators and deputies, represents an extra concern for the Planalto, which seeks to avoid the worsening of the crisis in the already troubled relationship with the Legislative. After almost a month of reading the request for the opening of the commission by Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), president of Congress, the CPMI has already shown the potential to generate provocations and riots.

However, there are government supporters who see in the commission, in which they have a majority, the opportunity to counterbalance the negative exposure due to the CPI of the Chamber that investigates acts of the Landless Rural Workers Movement (MST), which is largely dominated by the opposition.

The political strategists of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) have as a priority to accelerate the work at the CPMI, focusing mainly on the financiers of the protesters in Brasília, taking advantage of the material already raised by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and the Federal Police (PF) . In addition, there is a guideline to avoid calling up the military, to prevent new conflicts between this group and the government.

There is also a fear that the investigations will reveal additional embarrassing facts for the government, such as the leaked videos of the former head of the Institutional Security Office (GSI), General Marco Gonçalves Dias, acting in a friendly manner alongside the invaders of the Planalto Palace. . It was the release of these images, which the government kept secret, that made the commission inevitable.

Composition of the collegiate shows uncertainties and surprises

After having done everything to prevent the creation of the CPMI, moved by the fear of aggravating political instability, the government, represented in the collegiate by 15 of the 32 holders, is preparing to confront the nine members of the opposition and eight other independents. Since last week there was enough minimum number (17) to call the first session, which will only happen now, with the opposition still questioning vacancies according to the rule of proportionality of the parties.

The governing members of the CPMI are senators Ana Paula Lobato (PSB-MA), Cid Gomes (PST-CE), Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), Eliziane Gama (PSD-MA), Fabiano Contarato (PT-ES), Otto Alencar (PSD-BA) and Rogério Carvalho (PT-SE). The group is completed by deputies Arthur Maia (União-BA), Duarte (PSB-MA), Duda Salabert (PDT-MA), Erika Hilton (Psol-SP), Jandira Feghali (PCdoB-RJ), Paulo Magalhães (PSD-BA ), Rafael Brito (MDB-AL), Rogério Correia (PT-MG) and Rubens Pereira Júnior (PT-MA).

Oppositionists are Senators Damares Alves (Republicanos-DF), Eduardo Girão (Novo-CE), Esperidião Amin (PP-SC), Magno Malta (PL-ES) and Marcos do Val (Podemos-ES), plus deputies André Fernandes (PL-CE), author of the CPMI application, Carlos Sampaio (PSDB-SP), Delegado Ramagem (PL-RJ) and Felipe Barros (PL-PR).

In addition to these, there are the independents: senator Soraya Thronicke (União-MS) and deputies Aluisio Mendes (Republicanos-MA) and Rodrigo Gambale (Podemos-SP).

The sons of former President Bolsonaro, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), contradicted expectations and appear only as alternates.

The names that remain to be completed are two senators belonging to the MDB and a deputy from União Brasil, who have not yet been nominated.

The governing senator Omar Aziz (PSD-MA) had also asked to leave last week and should open a new vacancy. With this withdrawal, there was no expected rerun of prominent names in the 2021 Covid CPI, including senators Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) and Randolfe Rodrigues (without party-AP).

While the heated clashes do not start, the CPMI will deal on the first day only with the election of its president, deputy Arthur Maia (PP-BA), and the rapporteur, a post reserved for the Senate, but whose definition still raises doubts. The government’s biggest fear is the return of the polarization that marked the 2022 electoral campaign. Planalto and allies fear that the inquiry collegiates will become political platforms until the end of the year with a view to the 2024 elections for mayor and councilors, in addition to harming essential votes, such as those on the fiscal framework in the Senate and on tax reform.

To avoid this situation and shield the legislative priorities for the year, the mayors of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), made a joint announcement on Wednesday (23) and reaffirmed Congress’ role in approving the fiscal framework, followed by tax reform.

The first demonstration of partnership between the two presidents of Congress after the disagreements that marked the first months of the legislature indicated contours for the political articulation of the Planalto. For analysts, the gesture sought to firm up the voting agenda even in the first half of the year, given the fragility of the government’s articulation, which has demanded more release of Budget funds and the presence of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the negotiations.

Bolsonaro’s summons by government supporters is not ruled out

Leandro Gabiati, director of the political consultancy Dominium, predicts that the main consequence of the CPMI is an expected worsening of hostility between the government and the opposition, hampering the search for consensus and making it difficult to create an environment for dialogue. He points out that, although the collegiate should not obtain significant advances in the investigations, “the sure result will be an increase in polarization in Congress”.

Gabiati points out that the government will use its majority to inflict damage on the opposition through approved calls. “While the opposition can, at most, get the summons of General Marco Gonçalves Dias, former minister of the Institutional Security Office (GSI), and the Minister of Justice, Flávio Dino, the government supporters will seek to give greater visibility to figures linked to Jair Bolsonaro, as Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, former aide-de-camp, General Augusto Heleno (former GSI) and former Minister of Justice, Anderson Torres,” he said. He does not rule out the possibility that the former president himself will be asked to be summoned.

As for the MST’s CPI, the political scientist sees a real risk of it affecting the government’s image. “However, the Planalto will adopt an indirect stance, delegating defense to allied parties, such as PCdoB and PSol. This same strategy should be adopted in the CPI of NGOs, in the Senate, with the support of left-wing parties”, he points out.

For researcher Antonio Lavareda, there is a great possibility that both the CPMI of January 8 and the CPI of the MST become “mere rings” for the duel of government supporters and oppositionists in front of the cameras and wide repercussions on social networks.