With an eye on the presidency of COP30, which will be held in Belém, Brazil proposed at COP28, the UN climate conference taking place in Dubai until the 12th, that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC, in its acronym in English) produce a new report on each country’s historical responsibility for greenhouse gases.
The idea is that the document highlights how much each nation is to blame for the gases released into the atmosphere from the Industrial Revolution to the present day.
The proposal appears in the latest draft of the global assessment (main document being negotiated at the conference), which was released this Friday (8).
The idea is for countries to use the new report as a basis for reviewing their climate goals, which must be presented in 2025. The goal review process will be led by Brazil, which will preside over COP30 in Belém, in two years.
If embraced, the idea of making national climate goals commensurate with the responsibilities each country has for the climate crisis is ideally what can bridge the gap between current goals and the commitment needed to curb global warming.
However, Brazil expects to encounter resistance from the largest emitters, mainly from the developed bloc.
In addition to proportionality to historical emissions, Brazil argues that the new climate goals must also be aligned with the objective of containing global warming to around 1.5°C — a greater commitment than that signed in the Paris Agreement, when countries agreed on a warming containment window of 1.5°C to 2°C.
The original text of the Brazilian proposal, to which Sheet had access, invites the IPCC to prepare a technical report that allows countries “on a voluntary and nationally determined basis to exercise their relative contribution to the global average increase in surface temperature since 1850 for all gases and all sectors, taking into account accounts for the double process of accumulation over time, both of emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and of concentrations and increases in the global average surface temperature”.
In the draft of the global balance, three text options for the proposal appear.
The first of these commissions a study only for the next IPCC review cycle, which will not happen before 2025, when countries must review their goals. For the Brazilian proposal, it is important that the report is ready next year, giving countries time to use it as a basis for their reviews.
The second text option asks the IPCC for updated models on the efforts that countries need to make to keep global warming between 1.5°C and 2°C.
Only the third position reflects the original Brazilian proposal, calling for the development of a “simplified methodology to allow countries to provide estimates of their historical emissions since 1850 and calculate the relative historical contribution to global temperature rise”.
Brazilian diplomacy should not insist on the position harshly, but open the proposal for negotiation until finding a common denominator to promote the review of the goals.
According to Itamaraty negotiators, the latest draft of the global balance puts all possible text options on the table. From then on, informal consultations between the parties begin, in which Brazil must actively participate.
The country should avoid public statements in the second week of negotiations and wants to position itself as a mediator between developed nations and the bloc of developing countries — represented both by the G77 and China and by Basic (which brings together the emerging economies of Brazil, South Africa , India and China).
Reporter Ana Carolina Amaral traveled at the invitation of Avaaz, Instituto Arapyaú and Internews.