China accelerates soybean purchases in the US – 10/01/2024 – Shuttle
China is accelerating purchases of soybeans in the United States market, as shown by records of anticipated exports to the Asian country.
Americans sold 6.8 million tons to the Chinese, according to the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture). Based on the pace of recent weeks, the demands for this 2024/25 commercial harvest, which began on September 1st, are expected to exceed those for 2023/24. A year ago, advance sales from the United States to China were at 7.5 million.
According to assessments by AgRural, American soybean prices are interesting for Chinese buyers. Furthermore, Brazil has little soybeans to ship until January.
The volume traded between China and the United States this harvest, however, is still the lowest for this time of year since 2019, when the trade war between the two countries was ongoing.
Data from this Tuesday (1) from Anec (National Association of Cereal Exporters) indicate that Brazil exported 89.5 million tons of soybeans until the end of September, a volume 3% higher than in the same period in 2023.
Last year, a period of record production, Brazilian foreign sales totaled 101 million. This year, the harvest was frustrated and did not reach expected levels. Even so, the sales pace is strong.
Americans will have more products to export in the 2024/25 harvest, after the drop in production in the previous one. This week’s USDA data shows that the harvest is advanced, reaching 26% of the planted area, and 64% of the crop is in good and excellent condition.
The dry weather in these weeks will give more rhythm to the harvest, which, once completed, is expected to yield a record 125 million tons.
Good news for producers is that quarterly physical stocks stood at 9.3 million tons at the beginning of September, lower than expected.
American consumption in 2023/24 fell to 112 million tons, the lowest in four years, due to the crop failure in the previous period.
Getting out of focus
The Secretary of Agriculture of the United States, Tom Vilsack, on a visit to Europe, warned that agriculture in the United States does not destroy forests, therefore it must remain in line with the anti-deforestation law, which comes into force at the beginning of 2025. More pressure on Brazil.
Soy in sugarcane
Analyst Vlamir Brandalizze states that part of the sugarcane areas burned in the recent fires could go to soybeans. If this occurs, the total area with the oilseed could be close to 48 million hectares.
Bioenergy
The British BP, one of the players in the energy sector in Brazil, completed the acquisition of Bunge’s 50% stake in its joint venture BP Bunge Bioenergia SA. The company now becomes BP Bioenergy.
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