Bolsonaro’s names have an advantage over Lula’s – 09/29/2024 – Power

The most recent electoral polls show a greater number of candidates supported by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the lead compared to those endorsed by Lula (PT) in the 103 largest cities in the country — with more than 200 thousand voters and, therefore, who may have second round.

In total, the former president’s names are in first place in searches in 23 of these large municipalities, in 11 of them individually. The current president’s favorites lead in 16 cities, 5 of which alone.

As is normal in elections, the scenario can change significantly in the final stretch of the dispute.

Bolsonaro’s advantage over Lula occurs even though the PT member has his name linked to more candidates than the former president: 81 candidates in the 103 largest cities in the country have Lula’s endorsement, compared to 64 for Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro candidates lead in 8 of the country’s 26 capitals. In three others –São Paulo, Fortaleza and Rio Branco–, there is a fierce dispute between the names of Lula and Bolsonaro.

Fortaleza is, among the capitals, the only stage for a PL x PT dispute, head to head.

After a slower start and coming up behind former federal deputy Captain Wagner (União Brasil) and the current mayor, José Sarto (PDT), Bolsonaro supporter André Fernandes (PL) and PT member Evandro Leitão are in the lead, according to with the latest Datafolha survey.

In some capitals, Lula’s candidates “hide” their support for fear of being negatively affected by the rejection that the PT member has among part of the electorate. This is the case of the mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes (PSD), who has a chance of being re-elected in the first round.

A Datafolha survey in July showed that Paes had the voting intention of 42% of voters who declare themselves to be Bolsonaro supporters to some degree. This is one of the reasons that led the manager to choose to direct the attacks at governor Cláudio Castro (PL), from the same party as his opponent, Alexandre Ramagem (PL), instead of at Bolsonaro.

The case of João Campos (PSB) in Recife (PE) is similar. Isolated at the front with 76% of voting intentions, the pessebista did not turn to the president as an electoral campaigner.

The group of parties that is currently leading polls in isolation, in the 103 cities, is headed by Bolsonaro and Valdemar Costa Neto’s PL and Gilberto Kassab’s PSD — ten cities each.

Members of the two parties have come into conflict, among other reasons, due to the campaign by Bolsonarists criticizing the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), for not granting support to the request for impeachment of Federal Supreme Court minister Alexandre de Moraes.

At an event held in July to try to boost Antonio Brito’s (PSD-BA) candidacy for president of the Chamber, Valdemar and Kassab even talked to each other and, according to reports, the PL president told his PSD colleague that he would “put in the iron”, in reference to the municipal elections.

Lula’s PT has a much more limited performance, with isolated leadership in just 3 of the 103 cities.

In general, the map of competitive candidacies in large centers reflects the current configuration of Congress, with only one significant difference.

As in 2016 and 2020, the PT faces great difficulties in municipal elections, despite being in the federal Executive, having the second largest bench in the Chamber and being part of the G7 of the largest Brazilian parties as the only left-wing party — the bloc is made up of PL, PT, União Brasil, PSD, PP, MDB and Republicans.

The party is ahead in isolation only in the Minas Gerais cities of Juiz de Fora and Contagem, where it already governs and is seeking re-election, in addition to Camaçari (BA).

“We have noticed exactly this, a bad moment for the federal government. Fires, bets, lack of control over spending, bad speeches from Lula internationally, defeats in the government’s agenda, all of this preventing his political strength from being transformed into electoral victories”, says Fabio Wajngarten, who was head of the Communication Secretariat of the Presidency of the Bolsonaro government.

“On the other hand, President Bolsonaro traveling around Brazil, being acclaimed wherever he goes, doing what he likes, which is traveling around Brazil, close to the people. He transfers political strength to his candidates. I really think that [a eleição do dia 6] It will be a new milestone for the right.”

Federal deputy Jilmar Tatto (SP), who is the PT’s national communications secretary and is part of the party’s working group on elections, states that the diagnosis to be made on the night of the 6th will be who will be on Lula’s platform to 2026 and who will be out.

“We are a national project, and we are betting a lot on Lula’s re-election. There are left-wing parties and there is also a large part of the centrão”, says Tatto, who cites as an example São Paulo (PSOL), Rio de Janeiro ( PSD), Rio Branco (MDB) and Belo Horizonte (several parties besides the PT, with the exception of the PL).

“Ideally, it would be from the PT, but as we have a candidate for president of the Republic who is from the PT, and this is not in dispute either among the allied parties or on that front that he [Lula] created during his government, so for us it’s a comfortable feeling.”

Tatto says he understands that the Bolsonarist side is at greater risk.

“If the result shows that Bolsonaro is not as much a transferor of votes as he propagates, it will be a difficulty for him. He has a [Pablo] Marçal there, a crazy person who appeared and took a slice of his electorate. We don’t have this problem. We may have this problem post-Lula, in 2030.”