Bets should earn R$240 billion a year, estimates association

The betting market, known as bets, is expected to earn around R$240 billion per year from 2025, when regulation imposed by the Brazilian government officially begins. According to an estimate by the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), R$204 billion will be distributed in prizes.

In principle, the turnover should be R$20 billion per month, with R$17 billion allocated to paying prizes to bettors and R$3 billion remaining with the companies, not counting taxes and operational costs.

According to ANJL, bookmakers will have to pay around R$360 million in taxes to the federal government, corresponding to the 12% rate, in addition to approximately R$720 million in common taxes.

The president of ANJL, Plínio Lemos Jorge, stated that adding direct and indirect taxes, the sector’s tax burden could reach 48% of the amount that remains with companies, which represents R$1.56 billion of the estimated R$3 billion monthly.

The association bases prize payment estimates on legislation, which requires that 85% of the value of bets be distributed in prizes. These prizes may be subject to Income Tax taxation, depending on the value.

However, the most accurate numbers in the sector will only be known in 2025, when bets start reporting the values ​​of bets and prizes to the Central Bank daily.

Jorge also highlighted that the prize payout rate may be higher than that required by law, as bookmakers that offer more prizes tend to attract more players, increasing competitiveness in the sector.

“It’s not enough for the game to be beautiful, it has to attract bettors and this is done by paying prizes”, he explained in an interview with Estadão published on Tuesday (1st).

Regarding the controversy involving bettors who used Bolsa Família resources, Jorge stated that the Central Bank’s estimate, which indicated a profit of R$450 million for the sector with this practice, is wrong.

According to him, “this money did not leave the country”. Of the R$3 billion bet, he says, R$2.5 billion was paid in prizes, and the rest was allocated to operational expenses, such as marketing, salaries, transport and sponsorships.

“From 2025, this profit will remain in Brazil and will be taxed”, he guaranteed.

Regarding possible restrictions on advertising by betting houses, which have been discussed by Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance), Jorge took a stance against the measure. He warned that the advertising ban could favor illegal companies.

“We need publicity for a long time. If there are restrictions in the future, we will have a regulated and consolidated market. Now, the impact can be very large for legalized homes. Nowhere in the world has it been like this,” he said.

ANJL also announced an investment of R$790,000 to create a pilot program to support the treatment of gambling disorders, in partnership with Instituto Só. The project will last two months and provides for 1,000 face-to-face consultations in communities and up to 20,000 virtual consultations.

“Our treatment is not only for gambling patients, but also for other mental disorders that arise from gambling disorders, such as depression and anxiety”, stated Eduardo Pedrosa, project coordinator.

The release of estimated revenue for bets from 2025 onwards occurred on the same day that the government published the list of platforms authorized to operate legally in the country, while others that are not included in the list will have their access blocked from the day October 11th.

In total, 193 websites linked to 88 betting companies in the country were authorized. “From October 11th, these sites will begin to be taken down, with the help of the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel). Even after this date, it will continue to be the responsibility of the website operators to guarantee the means for bettors to withdraw the deposits to which they are entitled”, said the ministry in a note.